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Breast Cancer Research

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Breast Cancer Research's content profile, based on 32 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Integrated Collagen Architecture and Composition Improve Risk Stratification in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

Ozbilgic, R.; Dinc, B.; Vipparthi, K.; Seachrist, D.; Nicolas, M.; Keri, R. A.; Liu, X.; Yildirim, M.; Karaayvaz, M.

2026-05-14 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.05.11.724388 medRxiv
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PurposeTriple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) exhibits substantial clinical heterogeneity, with some patients experiencing early recurrence and poor survival despite similar clinicopathologic features. We sought to determine whether quantitative measures of intratumoral collagen architecture and composition derived from standard histopathologic specimens can identify patients at risk of recurrence and adverse survival outcomes. Experimental DesignWe analyzed a retrospective cohort of 79 TNBC tumors assembled into a tissue microarray using a multimodal computational pathology framework integrating Massons Trichrome staining with COL1 and COL3 immunohistochemistry. Collagen architecture was quantified using fiber-based image analysis and unsupervised clustering, while collagen composition was assessed using a normalized COL3:COL1 ratio. Associations with recurrence-free interval (RFI) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis, restricted mean survival time (RMST), and Cox proportional hazards modeling. ResultsUnsupervised analysis identified four distinct collagen architectural states, which were consolidated into low-risk and high-risk groups based on recurrence patterns. High-risk collagen architecture was associated with significantly worse long-term RFI (log-rank p=0.025; RMST difference 10.1 months). Independently, a higher COL3:COL1 ratio was associated with improved OS (log-rank p=0.042; RMST difference 9.4 months). Integration of architectural and compositional biomarkers further refined risk stratification, identifying a subgroup with high-risk architecture and low COL3:COL1 ratio that exhibited the poorest survival outcomes. Notably, collagen-based stratification identified patients with divergent outcomes not readily predicted from tumor stage alone. ConclusionsQuantitative assessment of intratumoral collagen architecture and composition provides clinically meaningful prognostic information in TNBC and enables stratification of recurrence and survival risk. These findings support extracellular matrix phenotyping as a practical and scalable computational pathology approach for refining risk assessment in TNBC. Translational RelevanceTriple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) remains clinically challenging due to heterogeneous outcomes that are not fully captured by standard clinicopathologic variables. In this study, we demonstrate that quantitative features of intratumoral collagen architecture and composition, derived from routine pathology specimens, provide clinically meaningful prognostic information. Collagen-based biomarkers, including distinct collagen architectural phenotypes and the COL3:COL1 ratio, identify patient subgroups with distinct recurrence and survival outcomes, particularly among individuals whose risk is not adequately predicted by conventional staging. Importantly, these features can be extracted from widely available histological stains and immunohistochemistry, supporting the potential integration into existing pathology workflows. These findings support the tumor microenvironment as an underutilized source of biomarkers and suggest that extracellular matrix-based phenotyping may improve risk stratification and inform clinical decision-making in TNBC.

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The tumour microenvironment influences long-term tamoxifen benefit in postmenopausal ER+/HER2- breast cancer patients.

Camargo Romera, P.; Castresana Aguirre, M.; Danielsson, O.; Dar, H.; Ostman, A.; Czene, K.; Lindstrom, L. S.; Tobin, N. P.

2026-03-26 oncology 10.64898/2026.03.24.26349151 medRxiv
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BackgroundThe tumour microenvironment (TME) influences breast cancer progression and treatment response. We investigated whether TME composition predicts tamoxifen benefit in postmenopausal women with oestrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative (ER+HER2-) breast cancer. MethodsThis study included 513 patients from the Stockholm Tamoxifen (STO-3) trial, which randomised postmenopausal, lymph node-negative women to tamoxifen or no endocrine therapy. Bulk tumour transcriptomes were deconvoluted with the ConsensusTME algorithm to estimate the relative abundance of 18 immune and stromal cell types. A summary score of combined immune cells was created on a per patient basis and evaluated alongside fibroblast and endothelial stromal compartments. Patients were categorised into immune and stromal tertiles on the basis of these scores. Associations between TME composition and tumour characteristics were evaluated using Spearman correlations and Fishers exact test. Tamoxifen benefit was analysed by univariable Kaplan-Meier (log-rank) and multivariable Cox proportional hazards adjusting for age, tumour size, grade, progesterone receptor, Ki-67, and radiotherapy. Differential expression was assessed with limma and pathway enrichment with fgsea using Hallmark gene sets from MSigDB. ResultsLow immune abundance was significantly associated with higher ER expression (Fishers exact test p < 0.001). Among tamoxifen-treated patients, those with low immune scores showed improved distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI) relative to untreated patients (log-rank p < 0.001). Similarly, intermediate endothelial (p < 0.001) and low/intermediate fibroblast abundances (p = 0.042, p = 0.009) were associated with favourable DRFI. In multivariable models, low immune (aHR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.40), intermediate endothelial (aHR = 0.21, 95% CI 0.09-0.51), and low/intermediate fibroblast tertiles (aHR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.93; aHR = 0.36, 95% CI 0.17-0.77) retained significance. Transcriptomic analysis revealed enrichment of oestrogen-response, MYC-target, and oxidative-phosphorylation pathways in low-immune and low-fibroblast tumours, while interferon-{gamma} response and allograft rejection pathways were downregulated. ConclusionsTME composition modulates tamoxifen benefit in postmenopausal ER+HER2-breast cancer. Low immune, intermediate endothelial, and low/intermediate fibroblast abundances are associated with improved benefit from tamoxifen, suggesting that both immune and stromal compartments influence endocrine treatment efficacy.

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Macrophage spatial polarity to T cells predicts prognosis in young women with luminal breast cancer

Mezheyeuski, A.; Serna, G.; Martin-Bernabe, A.; Hekmati, N.; Zerdes, I.; Denes, A.; Fredholm, H.; Mauchanski, S.; Guardia, X.; Alonso, L.; De Mey, L.; Lahoutte, T.; Keyaerts, M.; Lindblad, J.; Sladoje, N.; Warnberg, F.; Sund, M.; Rask, G.; Wadsten, C.; Ponten, F.; Micke, P.; Fredriksson, I.; Nuciforo, P.

2026-05-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.17.26352909 medRxiv
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Purpose: The prognostic role of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in luminal breast cancer remains uncertain, partly because density-based metrics do not capture spatial interactions between immune cell subsets. We developed a density-independent spatial metric quantifying macrophage-T cell proximity and assessed its prognostic value. Experimental Design: Using multiplex immunohistochemistry across three breast cancer cohorts (exploratory, n = 17; discovery, n = 687; validation, n = 305), we measured nearest-neighbor distances from T cells to M1-like and M2-like macrophages, benchmarked against a randomly subsampled total macrophage pool. We defined the Macrophage Spatial Polarity Index (MSPI) as the difference between M2-to-T cell and M1-to-T cell affinity scores, where higher values reflect an M2-dominated spatial phenotype. Cox regression was used to assess associations with distant disease-free survival (discovery) and overall survival (validation). Results: M2-like macrophages preferentially localized near T cells, independent of cell density. Higher MSPI was associated with shorter survival in luminal cancers (discovery: HR = 1.45, p < 0.001), with the strongest effect in young women with early-stage disease (HR = 2.16, p < 0.0001). MSPI remained independently prognostic after adjustment for stage, systemic treatment, and diagnosis period (HR = 2.31, 95% CI 1.73-3.09, p < 0.0001) and was non-significant in HER2-positive and triple-negative subtypes. Validation in an independent ER-positive cohort confirmed the finding (HR = 1.30, p = 0.004). Pooled analysis yielded HR = 2.13 (95% CI 1.68-2.70, p = 3.45 x 10-10). Conclusions: MSPI is a robust prognostic biomarker in luminal breast cancer, particularly in young women with early-stage disease, warranting further validation for risk stratification and therapeutic guidance.

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A Cross-Cohort Validated Plasma Lipid Biomarker Assay for Early Breast Cancer Detection Using Machine Learning

Huang, T.; Koch, F. C.; Peake, D. A.; Adam, K.-P.; David, M.; Li, D.; Heffernan, K.; Lim, A.; Hurrell, J. G.; Preston, S.; Baterseh, A.; Vafaee, F.

2026-04-23 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351564 medRxiv
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Early detection of breast cancer remains essential for improving clinical outcomes, and complementary non-invasive approaches are needed to support existing screening methods, particularly for women with dense breast tissue. We have previously reported plasma lipid biomarker discovery using untargeted high-resolution liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). In this study, we performed biomarker confirmation and developed machine-learning models applied to targeted plasma lipid measurements for the non-invasive detection of early-stage breast cancer across international cohorts with independent external validation. Targeted LC-MS/MS was used to quantify candidate lipid panels in plasma samples from European discovery cohorts (n = 554) and an independent Australian cohort (n = 266) used for external validation. Data-driven feature selection identified a 15-lipid panel with strong performance in European cohorts (AUC [&ge;] 0.94). External validation prior to confidence stratification yielded 76% sensitivity, 64% specificity, and an AUC of 0.81 in the Australian validation cohort. Clinical assay development requires iterative panel and model testing to support translational feasibility and performance in the intended-use population. An analytically viable panel, excluding lipids requiring complex and costly synthesis, achieved comparable accuracy with improved assay robustness. Confidence-based analysis showed enhanced performance for predictions made with moderate to high confidence, with sensitivity up to 89% and AUC up to 0.85, suggesting that ongoing research should focus on strategies to enhance diagnostic model confidence. Importantly, model predictions were independent of breast density, tumour size, grade, subtype, and morphology, indicating biological specificity of the lipid signature. These results demonstrate that calibrated machine-learning models applied to plasma lipid biomarkers can support non-invasive breast cancer detection. Expanding training datasets to include greater diversity will further improve performance in the ongoing development of this lipid-based detection approach.

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CBFB mutations predict endocrine therapy benefit in estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer

Yaacov, A.; Passi, G.; Gillis, R.; Katz, D.; Grinshpun, A.

2026-05-21 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.18.26353467 medRxiv
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Purpose: Beyond estrogen receptor (ER) positivity, no genomic biomarker reliably identifies ER+ breast cancer patients who derive differential benefit from endocrine therapy (ET). We performed an unbiased genomic screen to discover genes predicting ET response and characterized the top candidate across clinical settings, treatment modalities, and an independent validation cohort. Experimental Design: We screened 240 genes in 1,197 metastatic ET-treated patients from the MSK-CHORD clinical genomics database using Cox proportional hazards regression with false discovery rate (FDR) correction. The top candidate, core-binding factor subunit beta (CBFB), was characterized across four cohorts defined by disease setting (metastatic/adjuvant) and treatment (ET/chemotherapy), with multivariable adjustment, gene-by-treatment interaction testing, left-truncation sensitivity analysis for guarantee-time bias, and external validation in METABRIC (N = 1,499 ER+). Results: CBFB mutations (prevalence, ~5%) were the only gene associated with improved time to progression (TTP). In metastatic ET patients, CBFB-mutated tumors (n = 80) demonstrated significantly longer TTP (hazard ratio [HR], 0.44; 95% CI, 0.29-0.67; P = .0002, FDR q = .010) with no chemotherapy benefit (HR, 1.16; P = .65). The gene-by-treatment interaction was significant (HR, 0.37; P = .009). Effects were robust to multivariable adjustment (HR, 0.46-0.50), independent of histology, and preserved under left-truncated Cox regression (HR, 0.38). In the adjuvant setting, CBFB mutations predicted improved recurrence-free survival (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.31-0.85; P = .010), with no effect under chemotherapy. In METABRIC, CBFB mutations predicted improved ER+ overall survival (HR, 0.52; P = 9.3e-5). Conclusions: CBFB mutations identify ~5% of ER+ breast cancers with exceptional ET benefit. As CBFB is included on all major cancer gene panels, this biomarker requires no additional testing infrastructure for clinical implementation.

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Transcriptomic profile of MTUS1-low TNBC reveals candidate therapeutic strategies.

Guichaoua, G.; Collier, O.; Rodrigues-Ferreira, S.; Nahmias, C.; Stoven, V.

2026-05-26 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.05.22.727134 medRxiv
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BackgroundTriple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a clinically aggressive breast cancer subtype. It is a heterogeneous disease that remains difficult to stratify and that still lacks durable and biomarker-guided therapeutic options. Low expression of the tumour suppressor MTUS1 is associated with aggressive breast cancer features, but the biological properties of MTUS1-low TNBC remain insufficiently defined. Our goal was to determine whether low MTUS1 expression defines shared proliferative and stress-adaptation mechanisms that could guide candidate therapeutic strategies and corresponding target/drug pairs in MTUS1-low TNBC. MethodsWe labelled tumours from seven public TNBC RNA-seq cohorts based on the lowest and highest MTUS1 expression tertiles. Differential gene expression was analysed using gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) on the Hallmark pathway database to identify deregulated biological pathways between MTUS1-low TNBC tumours and their MTUS1-high counterparts. Reproducibility was examined across independent TNBC cohorts and secondarily in broader breast cancer and selected TCGA tumour cohorts. Gene essentiality scores from CRISPR-Cas9 experiments in TNBC cell-line models were correlated to MTUS1 expression in these cell lines, to propose therapeutic strategies and their corresponding candidate target/drug pairs. ResultsMTUS1-low tumours showed a reproducible pathway-level proliferation mechanism driven by the MYC oncogene and sustained by up-regulated oxidative phosphorylation, combined with stress adaptation mechanisms involving unfolded protein response (UPR), and DNA repair Hallmark gene sets. Based on CRISPR data, we propose 3 therapeutic strategies: (1) targeting MYC to reduce its transcriptional activity, (2) targeting proteins from UPR, (3) targeting DNA-repair. We also propose corresponding candidate target/drug pairs to allow experimental validation of these strategies. ConclusionsProliferation in low MTUS1 TNBC is driven by MYC and stress-adaptation mechanisms. By linking this tumour profile to CRISPR-derived dependency signals, our analysis prioritises experimentally testable target-pathway hypotheses centred on MYC, UPR/proteostasis, and DNA-repair or checkpoint control. Although the proposed therapeutic strategies and candidate targets remain to be experimentally tested, the latter finding is consistent with published work showing that ATIP3-deficient TNBC cell line models are sensitive to inhibition of the WEE1 PKMYT1 G2/M checkpoint kinases.

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Histology-Derived Signatures Predict Recurrence Risk and Chemotherapy Benefit in Randomized Trials of Early Breast Cancer

Howard, F. M.; Li, A.; Kochanny, S.; Sullivan, M.; Flores, E. M.; Dolezal, J.; Khramtsova, G.; Hassan, S.; Medenwald, R.; Saha, P.; Fan, C.; McCart, L.; Watson, M.; Teras, L. R.; Bodelon, C.; Patel, A. V.; Symmans, W. F.; Partridge, A.; Carey, L.; Olopade, O. I.; Stover, D.; Perou, C.; Yao, K.; Pearson, A. T.; Huo, D.

2026-04-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351499 medRxiv
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PurposeTo test whether histology-derived gene-expression signatures from routine hematoxylin and eosin slides are prognostic for recurrence and predictive of chemotherapy benefit in early breast cancer. MethodsWe conducted a multi-cohort study including CALGB 9344 (anthracycline {+/-} paclitaxel), CALGB 9741 (standard vs dose-dense chemotherapy), a pooled Chicago real-world cohort, and the American Cancer Society (ACS) Cancer Prevention Studies-II and -3. Whole-slide images were processed with a previously described pipeline to generate 61 histology-derived signatures per patient. The primary endpoint was distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI), except in ACS, where breast cancer-specific survival was used. Secondary endpoints include distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) and overall survival. The most prognostic signature in CALGB 9344, selected by Harrells C-index, was evaluated in additional cohorts. Signature-treatment interaction was assessed by likelihood-ratio tests. Multivariable Cox models incorporating age, tumor size, nodal status, estrogen/progesterone receptor status, and signature were fit in CALGB 9344 to improve risk stratification. ResultsA total of 7,170 patients were included across four cohorts. The top histology-derived signature in CALGB 9344 showed strong prognostic performance for 5-year DRFI (C-index 0.63) and performed well across validation cohorts (C-index 0.60, 0.70, and 0.62 in CALGB 9741, Chicago, and ACS, respectively). The strongest predictive signal for treatment benefit was observed for DRFS. High-risk cases identified by the signature demonstrated greater benefit from taxane in CALGB 9344 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.76 for DRFS, 95% CI 0.66-0.88; interaction p=0.028), from dose-dense chemotherapy in CALGB 9741 (aHR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.85; interaction p=0.039), and differential chemotherapy benefit in the Chicago cohort (aHR 0.84, 95% CI 0.59-1.21; interaction p=0.009). Combined clinical-histology models improved risk stratification and identified low-risk groups with a 2%-10% risk of distant recurrence or breast cancer death. ConclusionHistology-derived signatures from H&E images are broadly prognostic and, unlike clinical factors, may predict chemotherapy benefit. HighlightsO_LIHistology-derived H&E signatures consistently predicted recurrence risk across randomized trials and real-world cohorts. C_LIO_LIA single cutoff of a low-risk histology signature predicted taxane benefit and dose-dense chemotherapy benefit. C_LIO_LICombined clinical-histology models identified low-risk groups with 2%-10% risk of distant recurrence. C_LI

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β-Hydroxybutyrate elicits divergent metabolic responses between MCF-7 and T47D ER+ breast cancer cells under glucose restriction

Cheung, C.; Glibetic, N.; Maldonado, R.; Bowman, S.; Skaggs, T.; Torres, L.; Perrault Uptmor, K. A.; Weichhaus, M.

2026-05-18 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.05.14.725288 medRxiv
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BackgroundThe ketogenic diet is being explored as an adjuvant intervention in breast cancer because it lowers circulating glucose and elevates ketone bodies such as {beta}-hydroxybutyrate (BHB), but how individual ER+ breast cancer subtypes adapt to these conditions remains poorly characterized. We examined metabolic responses to BHB supplementation under glucose restriction in two ER+ breast cancer cell lines, asking whether metabolic adaptation patterns differ between models. MethodsMCF-7 and T47D cells were cultured under high glucose, glucose-restricted (5% of standard), or glucose-restricted with 10 mM BHB conditions and profiled by comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GCxGC-MS). Pairwise Welchs t-tests with Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) correction were applied to identify treatment-responsive metabolites. Targeted assays quantified intracellular glycine, SHMT1 protein, and total branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) concentrations across a BHB dose range (2.5-15 mM). Patient tumor transcriptomic data from TCGA (n=1,084) and paired tumor-normal samples from GSE58135 (n=20) were analyzed for genes involved in one-carbon, ketone body, and BCAA metabolism. ResultsMCF-7 and T47D cells exhibited markedly divergent metabolic responses to BHB. In MCF-7 cells, BHB supplementation produced a broad pattern-level metabolic shift: 75% of detected metabolites trended upward when BHB was added to glucose-restricted cultures (C vs. B comparison), with 1,4-butanediol reaching nominal significance (FC=2.35, p=0.016) and a 4.1-fold trend increase in lactic acid (p=0.11), although no individual metabolite survived FDR correction. T47D cells showed essentially no metabolic response to BHB at the global level. Targeted assays detected an elevation in glycine at 5 mM BHB in both cell lines that did not follow a monotonic dose response and was not accompanied by changes in SHMT1 protein expression. Total BCAA levels were elevated by BHB in T47D cells but remained unchanged in MCF-7 cells. In paired patient samples, OXCT1 (log2FC = -1.41), SHMT1 (log2FC = -1.31), and ACAT1 (log2FC = -1.07) were significantly downregulated in ER+ tumors relative to matched normal tissue (adjusted p < 0.001 for all three). ConclusionsER+ breast cancer cell lines show heterogeneous metabolic responses to BHB supplementation under glucose restriction. The broad pattern of metabolite elevation in MCF-7 but not T47D cells suggests that capacity to utilize ketone bodies as metabolic substrate varies between ER+ models. The downregulation of OXCT1, ACAT1, and SHMT1 in ER+ tumors compared to normal tissue identifies these enzymes as candidate biomarkers that may help stratify which patients are likely to benefit from ketogenic interventions. Findings related to individual metabolites should be regarded as exploratory and require validation in larger, adequately powered cohorts.

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Convergent suppression of nuclear-encoded mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation genes defines a pan-subtype signature in breast cancer: a multi-cohort transcriptomic study

Gomosani, A. A.; Marghalani, H.; Al Matar, L.

2026-05-20 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.05.17.725700 medRxiv
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BackgroundBreast cancer exhibits extensive molecular heterogeneity across intrinsic subtypes, yet convergent metabolic reprogramming may represent an obligate feature of tumour initiation. We hypothesised that suppression of nuclear-encoded mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation (FAO) constitutes such a convergence point, defining a shared metabolic phenotype independent of subtype. MethodsRNA-seq data from 1,106 primary breast tumours and 113 normal-adjacent tissues (TCGA-BRCA) were intersected with 1,079 nuclear-encoded mitochondrial genes from MitoCarta 3.0. Differential expression was assessed using Welch t-test with Benjamini-Hochberg correction at all tumour stages, at Stage I specifically, and stratified across PAM50 subtypes. A 55-gene core FAO signature was derived by three-way intersection. Ten candidate genes were selected by pre-specified objective scoring, locked before any clinical testing. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was performed using MitoCarta 3.0 pathway annotations. Diagnostic performance, clinical associations, survival, and mutation independence were characterised. External validation used two independent GEO cohorts (GSE42568, n = 121; GSE109169, n = 50); prognostic validation used METABRIC (Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium; n = 1,980). DESeq2 was applied as methodological cross-validation. ResultsAmong 126 differentially expressed mitochondrial genes, fatty acid oxidation was the most significantly depleted pathway (normalised enrichment score -2.130; false discovery rate 0.001). The 55-gene core signature replicated in both external cohorts with 100% directional concordance (hypergeometric p < 10-{superscript 1}). All 10 candidate genes discriminated tumour from normal tissue (area under the curve 0.915-0.979) and demonstrated broad clinical associations. The composite FAO suppression score predicted overall survival in METABRIC (log-rank p = 7.82 x 10-) and MAOA achieved independent prognostic significance in multivariable Cox regression (hazard ratio 0.890; adjusted p = 0.009). DESeq2 cross-validation confirmed Spearman {rho} = 0.980 concordance. ConclusionsNuclear-encoded FAO suppression is a robust, pan-subtype feature of breast cancer detectable at Stage I and validated across independent platforms and cohorts. These 10 candidate genes constitute a consistent initiation-phase mitochondrial signature, implicating FAO suppression as a potential convergence point in breast cancer oncogenesis and motivating targeted functional investigation.

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Prognostic performance of an AI-based recurrence risk model in clinically low-risk HR+/HER2- early breast cancer

Tang, C.; Biswas, D.; Liu, C.; Zeng, K.; Geras, K. J.; Witowski, J.; Meurs, C.; Westenend, P. J.

2026-06-03 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354233 medRxiv
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Objective Accurate prognostication of recurrence risk in HR+/HER2- early breast cancer is central for therapeutic decision-making, including identifying patients who may safely avoid adjuvant systemic therapy. However, the performance of existing prognostic tools remains insufficient for effective clinical stratification, motivating the development of artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods to improve risk stratification. Methods Ataraxis Breast CTX (ATX) is a multi-modal AI test that integrates H&E-stained whole-slide images with clinicopathologic features to predict risk of recurrence for individual patients. This study aims to validate ATX in an external dataset enriched for clinically low-risk patients from Dordrecht, the Netherlands. ATX scores were generated for 892 women diagnosed with early HR+/HER2- breast cancer. Of the 892 patients, 299 did not receive adjuvant systemic therapy. The discriminative performance of ATX was assessed using C-index and its stratification ability was evaluated by log-rank tests comparing Kaplan-Meier survival curves across risk groups. Results ATX achieved a C-index of 0.71 and a 5-year time-dependent AUC of 0.71, demonstrating strong discrimination in predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS). Among 299 patients who received no adjuvant therapy, ATX achieved a C-index and time-dependent AUC of 0.78 and 0.81 respectively, suggesting ATX retains prognostic information in the absence of systemic therapy. ATX scores were used to stratify patients into risk groups using a pre-specified threshold, where 656 (74%) were classified as ATX low-risk and 236 (26%) were classified as high-risk. Notably, untreated and treated ATX low-risk patients had comparable 5-year RFS (untreated: 5-year RFS = 96%, 95% CI = 92-97%; treated: 5-year RFS = 96%, 95% CI = 93-97%) with near identical 10-year RFS (86%, 95% CI = 83-92% for both), suggesting ATX low-risk status may identify a subgroup with favorable prognosis independent of treatment exposure. Conclusion ATX provides robust prognostic stratification in an external cohort of clinically low-risk HR+/HER2- early breast cancer and identifies a subgroup of patients who did not receive systemic therapy with favorable observed outcomes. These results support prospective validation of ATX as a decision-support tool for adjuvant therapy de-escalation in HR+/HER2- early breast cancer.

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Estrogen receptor-positive cell line xenograft models recapitulate metastatic dissemination and endocrine response of invasive lobular breast carcinoma

Tasdemir, N.; Savariau, L.; Scott, J.; Latoche, J.; Biery, K.; Li, Z.; Bossart, E.; Sreekumar, S.; Brown, D.; Wang, S.; Watters, R.; Nasrazadani, A.; Qin, Y.; Cao, Y.; Chen, F.; Tseng, G.; Castro, C.; Anderson, C. J.; Atkinson, J.; Hooda, J.; Lucas, P. C.; Davidson, N.; LEE, A. V.; Oesterreich, S.

2026-03-18 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.03.17.712396 medRxiv
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Invasive lobular breast carcinoma (ILC), the most common special histological subtype of breast cancer, is characterized by nearly universal expression of estrogen receptor alpha (ER) and unique sites of metastases, neither of which is fully recapitulated by genetically engineered mouse models. Using reporter-labeled ILC mouse xenografts, herein we used mammary fat pad, tail vein and intracardiac orthotopic growth to analyze spontaneous and experimental metastasis and gene expression. We observed ER-positive primary tumors with single-file histology and collagen deposition, and spontaneous metastasis from the mammary fat pad to bones, ovaries, and brain including the leptomeninges, thereby closely mirroring the growth and metastatic spread of human ILC. Brain metastases showed strong ER staining, confirmed by sequencing analyses which identified estrogen signaling as top activated pathway, and the lesions exhibited robust response to endocrine therapy. In summary, we report endocrine responsive mammary fat pad, tail vein and intracardiac xenografts that faithfully demonstrate unique ILC features and can serve as invaluable pre-clinical translational platforms for validating candidate ILC genetic drivers and testing novel therapeutics.

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Longitudinal multi-platform profiling reveals temporal dynamics of HER2, TROP2, PD-L1 and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in triple-negative breast cancer

Gomez Tejeda Zanudo, J.; Binboga Kurt, B.; Frangieh, A.; Barkell, A. M.; Navarro, J.; Ngo, L.; Mohammed-Abreu, A.; Bisha, I.; Abhishek, S.; Kim, B.-J.; Hughes, M.; Prade, V. M.; Helvie, K. E.; Baginska, J.; Clark, D. J.; Schick, M.; Hill, R. J.; King, T. A.; Mittendorf, E. A.; Rebelatto, M.; Winer, E. P.; Tolaney, S. M.; Johnson, B. E.; Carroll, D.; Scaltriti, M.; Lin, N. U.; de Bruin, E. C.; Garrido-Castro, A. C.

2026-05-25 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.22.26353710 medRxiv
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Introduction: With recent approvals of multiple targeted therapies for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), including antibody-drug conjugates and immunotherapy in biomarker-selected populations, it is critical to define the temporal evolution of cell-surface target expression from early-stage to metastatic disease, the co-expression patterns across these markers, and optimal quantification methodologies. Here we report biomarker expression profiles measured by multi-omics and pathology-based platforms in patients with TNBC using a large cohort of matched longitudinal tumor samples. Methods: Patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for stage I-III TNBC or were diagnosed with any stage TNBC and developed metastatic recurrence were retrospectively identified from an institutional database and prospective research metastatic biopsy protocol. Tumor samples from diagnosis (DX), residual disease (RD) post-NAC (if applicable), and metastasis/recurrence (MR) were collected. Quantification of HER2, TROP2, and PD-L1 expression was performed by immunohistochemistry (IHC), whole-exome sequencing, transcriptome sequencing, and targeted mass spectrometry (MS). For HER2, TROP2, and stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs), both manual pathologist assessment and computational pathology quantification were obtained. HER2 status was categorized as HER2-0 or HER2-low by local (L-IHC) and central (C-IHC) review, TROP2 status was defined as low (H-score <100), medium (H-score 100-200) or high (H-score >200), and PD-L1 as low (tumor area positivity, TAP <5%) or high (TAP [&ge;]5%). Pathologist-assessed sTILs were classified as low (<10%), medium ([&ge;]10% and <40%) or high ([&ge;]40%). Biomarkers were compared between primary (DX/RD) and MR, and between pre- vs post-NAC (DX-RD) samples. Correlations between markers, quantification methods, inferred PAM50 subtype, and clinical variables of interest were evaluated. Results: A total of 359 samples from 110 patients with TNBC with data available from at least one platform were included in the analysis. HER2-low prevalence at DX, RD, and MR was: 51% (50/98), 40% (21/53), and 27% (16/60); TROP2 high/medium was 90% (47/52), 91% (42/46), and 88% (28/32); PD-L1-high was 51%, 50%, and 38% (9/24); and sTILs-high/medium was 88% (59/67), 80% (40/50), and 49% (17/35), respectively. While TROP2-high/medium vs low remained stable over time, HER2 IHC and sTILs significantly decreased from DX/RD to MR samples, both at the cohort-level (HER2, p=0.0081; sTILs, p=4.6x10e-5) and longitudinal patient-level (HER2, p=0.030; sTILs, p=0.0077), with a similar decreasing trend for PD-L1 that did not reach statistical significance. HER2 concordance (0 vs low) between L-IHC and C-IHC was 78% (91/116). ERBB2, TACSTD2 and CD274 mRNA expression were significantly correlated with IHC protein levels, though only TACSTD2 had limited overlap in distribution of gene expression between high/medium vs low groups. Strong correlation between protein membrane staining intensity from computational pathology, protein expression measured by MS, and pathologist-assed IHC was observed across all biomarkers tested by each method. In comparisons between biomarkers, pathologist-assessed PD-L1 IHC and sTILs were significantly correlated (p=0.0001); 94% (51/54) of PD-L1-high tumors were classified as sTILs high/medium. PAM50 subtype was not significantly correlated with time point or biomarker status, although there was a trend toward more HER2-enriched tumors in HER2-low (20%, 5/25) vs HER2-0 (6%, 3/52) (p=0.086). Across biomarkers and clinical variables, an association between age and sTILs was observed (p=0.038, FDR=0.42) due to a decrease in sTILs high/medium tumors with age, primarily driven by post-treatment (RD/MR) but not DX samples. Conclusions: Multi-platform and multi-omics profiling in this large unique cohort of longitudinal TNBC samples revealed distinct patterns of expression and dynamic changes of key biomarkers of interest for targeted therapies. Given variability with manual IHC scoring, improved methods for quantification of expression may help optimize treatment selection in an individualized manner.

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Artificial Intelligence and Circulating microRNA Signatures for Early Breast Cancer Detection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Solanki, s.; Solanki, N.; Prasad, J.; Prasad, R.; Harsulkar, A.

2026-03-30 oncology 10.64898/2026.03.29.26349657 medRxiv
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Background: Early breast cancer detection remains central to improving clinical outcomes, yet conventional screening pathways, particularly mammography, have recognized limitations in sensitivity, specificity, and performance in dense breast tissue. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) have emerged as promising minimally invasive biomarkers, while artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) offer powerful tools for identifying diagnostically relevant multi-marker patterns within complex biomarker datasets. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the diagnostic performance of AI/ML-based circulating miRNA signatures for early breast cancer detection. Methods: A systematic search of PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science Core Collection was conducted from database inception to 31 December 2025. Studies were eligible if they were original human investigations evaluating circulating miRNAs using an AI/ML-based diagnostic model for breast cancer detection and reporting extractable diagnostic performance metrics. Study selection followed PRISMA 2020 and PRISMA-DTA guidance. Methodological quality was assessed using QUADAS 2. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were synthesized using a bivariate random-effects model, and overall diagnostic performance was summarized using a hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic framework. Results: Seven studies met the inclusion criteria for qualitative synthesis, with eligible studies contributing to the quantitative analysis depending on data availability. Across the pooled analysis, AI/ML-based circulating miRNA models demonstrated good overall diagnostic performance, with a pooled AUC of 0.905 (95% CI: 0.890 to 0.921), pooled sensitivity of 81.3% (95% CI: 76.8% to 85.2%), and pooled specificity of 87.0% (95% CI: 82.4% to 90.7%). Heterogeneity was moderate for AUC (I2 = 42.3%) and sensitivity (I2 = 38.7%) and low for specificity (I2 = 28.4%). Risk-of-bias assessment showed overall low-to-moderate methodological concern, with patient selection representing the most variable domain. Deeks funnel plot asymmetry test showed no significant evidence of publication bias (p = 0.34). Conclusions: AI/ML based circulating miRNA signatures show promising diagnostic accuracy for early breast cancer detection and may have value as non invasive adjunctive tools within imaging supported diagnostic pathways. However, the evidence base remains limited by methodological heterogeneity, variable validation rigor, and the predominance of retrospective case control designs. Prospective, standardized, and externally validated studies are needed before routine clinical implementation can be justified.

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Single-cell immune profiling of regional lymph nodes during early-stage breast cancer progression

Fjoertoft, M. O.; Garred, O.; Lande, K. T.; Bergheim, I. R.; Riis, M. H.; Lingjaerde, O. C.; Russnes, H.; Myklebust, J. H.; Huse, K.; Rye, I. H.

2026-05-21 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.05.18.724563 medRxiv
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INTRODUCIONTumor cell infiltration in regional lymph nodes is a strong prognostic marker, guiding treatment decisions in breast cancer. While the immune cell composition in primary tumors has been more widely explored in later years, the immune cell composition of the sentinel node (SN) and axillary lymph nodes (ALN) remains understudied. A better understanding of how primary tumor and metastatic tumor cells alter the nodal immune microenvironment can shed light on metastasis and cancer progression to unveil new treatment strategies. MATERIALS AND METHODSFrom a prospective clinical cohort of 458 treatment-naive patients with primary operable breast cancer, we performed comprehensive immunophenotypic analysis using mass cytometry analysis of non-metastatic (SN-) and metastatic (SN+) and ALN (ALN+) lymph nodes. RESULTSAs expected, patients with ALN+ cases had a shorter time to distant metastases than SN+ and SN- cases. We identified an exhausted T-cell phenotype and an increase in Germinal Center B (GC B) cells and plasma cells in ALN+ samples compared to SN- samples, both in the whole cohort as well as when investigating estrogen-receptor positive (ER+) patients only. There were no differences in immune cell composition across breast cancer (BC) subtypes within SN-samples. SN+ samples from triple negative BC (TNBC) showed a trend towards increased abundance of GC B and plasma cells, similar to more advanced ALN+, suggesting that smaller TN metastases may trigger an immune activation at an early stage of dissemination. Further analysis of SN- samples from ER+ patients revealed a subset of patients where the immune response had a more exhausted T-cell phenotype. This group was enriched for lymph nodes that were deemed negative by ordinary pathology examination (microscopy) but had detectable tumor cells by CyTOF analysis. CONCLUSIONThe immune profiles of SN and ALN samples from breast cancer patients are highly diverse, showing limited associations to BC subtype, clinical parameters or patient outcome. Metastatic tumor cells play a significant role in driving T-cell exhaustion and immunosuppression. Notably, in approximately 50% of the ER+ samples, T-cell exhaustion was detectable. This coincides with the presence of tumor cells identified by CyTOF, which were likely missed by conventional pathological examination. These findings suggest that small tumor deposits alter the immune composition, and the immune profile reveals the presence of tumor cells.

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Restoration of E-cadherin Expression Alters Metastatic Organotropism in Invasive Lobular Breast Carcinoma Models

Savariau, L.; Tasdemir, N.; Thale, I. L.; Elangovan, A.; Ding, K.; John Mary, D. J. S.; Schlegel, B. T.; Xavier, J.; Hooda, J.; Lee, A. V.; Oesterreich, S.

2026-05-18 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.05.14.724680 medRxiv
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Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) is the most frequently diagnosed special histological subtype of invasive breast cancer and accounts for 10 - 15% of all cases. The pathognomonic hallmark of ILC is the genetic loss of E-cadherin (CDH1) causing the disruption of adherens junctions and resulting in discohesive, linear growth. To better understand the role of E-cadherin in ILC metastasis, we generated three ILC cell lines, MDA-MB-134-VI, SUM44PE, and BCK4, with inducible E-cadherin expression, resulting in successful restoration of functional adherens junctions. E-cadherin expression reduced growth in 2D culture, and that effect was even greater in 3D ultra-low attachment (ULA) conditions where increased cell death was consistent with the previously described role of E-cadherin in anoikis. E-cadherin expression did not rescue the lack of migration and invasion of ILC cell line models; however, it decreased haptotaxis and increased adherence to Collagen I in SUM44 cells. There was no significant effect of E-cadherin expression on primary orthotopic tumor growth, but spontaneous metastasis to the reproductive tract, brain, and GI tract was reduced. Inhibition of metastasis to the reproductive tract and brain was also seen after tail vein injection of MDA-MB-134 E-cadherin-expressing cells. In summary, overexpression of functional E-cadherin in ILC models has some, but limited, effects on 2D growth in vitro and primary tumor growth in vivo, but there are pronounced effects on 3D ULA growth and metastases in vivo, with stronger effects on metastatic sites enriched in patients with ILC, especially the reproductive and GI tracts.

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Retrospective cohort study extracting coexisting background breast-lesion features from stage I-III invasive breast cancer

Lim, R. J. Y.; Nitar, P.; Lau, K. W.; Leong, L. C. H.; Lim, G. H.; Tan, V. K. M.; Tan, B. K. T.; Tan, E. Y.; Goh, S. S. N.; Hartman, M.; Wong, F. Y.; Li, J.; Joint Breast Cancer Registry,

2026-05-22 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353633 medRxiv
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Background Background breast features are frequently noted in pathology reports alongside invasive breast cancer but rarely factor into prognosis or treatment decisions. Their relationship to tumor characteristics and patient outcomes remains incompletely characterised. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 7,603 patients with Stage I-III invasive breast cancer (diagnosed 1991-2022, age <80 years) from the Joint Breast Cancer Registry in Singapore. Natural language processing (NLP) was applied to 9,754 free-text pathology reports to extract co-existing background breast features, with accuracy validated by dual-reviewer assessment of 200 reports. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering grouped extracted features into three categories. Associations with tumor characteristics were assessed by multinomial logistic regression, and ten-year overall survival by Cox proportional hazards models (median follow-up 9.6 years; 620 deaths). Results Here we show that NLP-based extraction of background breast features from routine pathology reports achieves an accuracy of over 90% across features. Lobular neoplasia and benign proliferative changes are associated with less aggressive tumor characteristics, whereas early neoplastic and papillary lesions are more prevalent in HER2-enriched and luminal B tumor subtypes. Benign proliferative changes are associated with better survival in age- and year-adjusted models (hazard ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.86-0.97), but this association is attenuated after adjustment for stage and subtype. Conclusions NLP-enabled extraction of background breast features from pathology text is feasible at scale. These features reflect tumor biology but do not independently add prognostic information beyond established clinical variables.

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Development and Validation of a Multimodal Clinical, Pathologic, and Genomic Model for Breast Cancer Recurrence

Nguyen, N.-K.; Li, A.; Kochanny, S.; Dolezal, J.; Ramesh, S.; Shamai, G.; Zhao, J.; Nanda, R.; Chen, N.; Olopade, O. I.; Sullivan, M.; Flores, E. M.; Khramtsova, G.; Jain-Liu, S.; Medenwald, R.; Saha, P.; McCart, L.; Watson, M.; Symmans, W. F.; Kalinsky, K.; Pusztai, L.; Gala, M.; Paul, E. D.; Huraiova, B.; Cekan, P.; Partridge, A. H.; Carey, L.; Stover, D.; Yao, K.; Sparano, J. A.; Huo, D.; Pearson, A. T.; Howard, F. M.

2026-05-12 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.08.26352562 medRxiv
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PurposeTo develop and validate a multimodal recurrence-risk model integrating histology, genomic testing, and clinical variables. MethodsWe developed AI-Path, a whole-slide image biomarker for recurrence prediction trained in CALGB 9344, and validated it in three independent cohorts: TAILORx, a multi-site Chicago cohort, and the MDX-BRCA cohort. We then integrated AI-Path with Oncotype DX Recurrence Score (RS), tumor size, and nodal status into a Cox model, PathClinRS, fit using 60% of cases from TAILORx, with the remaining 40% held out for validation. The primary end point was distant recurrence-free interval. Performance was assessed using Harrells concordance index (C-index) and Kaplan-Meier analyses. ResultsA total of 12,418 patients were included. In TAILORx, AI-Path outperformed RS for distant recurrence (C-index, 0.682 vs 0.647; P = .038), driven by superior prediction of late recurrence (0.656 vs 0.567; P < .001). In node-negative disease, PathClinRS outperformed RSClin in the TAILORx fitting (0.72 vs 0.70; P = .016) and validation sets (0.74 vs 0.70; P = .004). In node-positive disease, PathClinRS outperformed RSClinN+ in Chicago (0.94 vs 0.74; P < .001) and MDX-BRCA (0.71 vs 0.66; P = .004) cohorts. Compared with NATALEE eligibility, PathClinRS identified nearly twice as many high-risk node-negative patients while maintaining a comparable 10-year distant recurrence risk (16.7% vs 16.6% per NATALEE eligibility in TAILORx fitting; 21.0% vs 19.4% in TAILORx validation). PathClinRS identified 68% of intermediate risk premenopausal patients as low-risk with no evidence of chemotherapy benefit, compared to only 36% identified as low risk by standard clinicopathologic criteria. ConclusionDigital histopathology provides prognostic information complementary to genomic assays and has the potential to personalize therapy beyond existing clinicogenomic tools.

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Semaglutide is associated with improved breast cancer survival, lower metastatic burden, and a dose-survival relationship uncoupled from weight-loss magnitude

Murugadoss, K.; Venkatakrishnan, A. J.; Soundararajan, V.

2026-04-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351609 medRxiv
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Metabolic dysfunction is increasingly recognized as a risk factor for poor outcomes in breast cancer, but whether incretin-based therapies confer survival benefit beyond weight loss remains unresolved. Using a federated electronic health record platform spanning nearly 29 million patients, we evaluated breast cancer survival after semaglutide and tirzepatide initiation in routine care. In 1:1 propensity-matched pooled-comparator analyses, semaglutide was associated with improved overall survival versus metformin, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, and dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitor users, with 54 deaths among 2,433 semaglutide users (2.2%) versus 395 deaths among 2,433 comparators (16.2%) over 24 months (log-rank P < 0.001). Tirzepatide showed a favorable survival association relative to pooled anti-diabetic comparators that did not meet statistical significance (P = 0.24), with 3 deaths among 220 users (1.4%) versus 64 deaths among 220 comparators (29.1%). In a head-to-head propensity-score-matched comparison, overall survival did not differ significantly between semaglutide- and tirzepatide-treated patients with pre-existing breast cancer (2,117 per arm; P = 0.12). In semaglutide-treated patients alive and observable at the 1-year landmark, higher maximum dose achieved was significantly associated with lower post-landmark mortality (P = 0.034), with an event rate of approximately 1.0% in the high-dose group ([&ge;]1.7 mg) versus approximately 4.5% in the low-dose group (0.25-1.0 mg). Despite a linear dose-weight loss relationship for semaglutide, however, weight-loss strata did not separate survival outcomes (global P = 0.22). In tirzepatide-treated patients alive and observable at the same landmark, neither maximum dose achieved nor weight-loss strata separated post-landmark survival (P = 0.98 and P = 0.50, respectively). Structured EHR and AI-based clinical-note analyses further showed significantly lower frequency of documented metastatic disease in semaglutide-treated patients relative to pooled anti-diabetic comparators, including any metastasis (7.0% versus 15.0%, rate ratio 0.5, P < 0.001), bone metastasis (1.0% versus 5.2%, rate ratio 0.2, P < 0.001), and liver, lung, or brain metastases (all P < 0.001). LLM-derived cause-of-death extraction further showed a 60% lower relative proportion of cancer-associated deaths in semaglutide-treated patients (19% of ascertainable deaths) than in matched pooled anti-diabetic comparators (47% of ascertainable deaths), with comparator deaths more often attributed to cancer progression involving metastatic breast cancer, leptomeningeal carcinomatosis, and cancer-driven organ failure. Overall, this study demonstrates that semaglutide use in patients with pre-existing breast cancer is associated with a dose-correlated but weight-loss independent improvement in overall survival. These findings motivate prospective trials of GLP-1 receptor agonists in breast cancer across various stages and treatment settings.

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Predicting 5-Year Breast Cancer Risk from Longitudinal Digital Breast Tomosynthesis: A Single-center Retrospective Study

Xu, Y.; Heacock, L.; Park, J.; Pasadyn, F. L.; Lei, Q.; Lewin, A.; Geras, K. J.; Moy, L.; Schnabel, F.; Shen, Y.

2026-03-24 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.03.22.26349001 medRxiv
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Background: Imaging-based breast cancer risk prediction models primarily use full-field digital mammography (FFDM). As digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) has become a predominant screening modality in the United States, its potential for long-term breast cancer risk prediction remains under-explored. Objective: To develop and evaluate a deep learning model that uses longitudinal DBT exams to predict long-term breast cancer risk. Methods: This retrospective study included 313,531 DBT exams from 161,165 women (mean age, 58.5, std 11.7 years) between January 2016 and August 2020 at Institute A. A risk prediction (DRP) model was developed to estimate 2-5 year breast cancer risk using longitudinal DBT exams, patient age and breast density. Model performance was compared with a single-time point DBT model, the Mirai model using same-day FFDM, and the Tyrer-Cuzick model using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), time-dependent concordance index, and integrated Brier score. Results: In an independent test set (n = 34,580), the longitudinal DRP model achieved a 5-year AUC of 0.720 (95% CI, 0.703-0.738), improving on the single time point DRP model (AUC, 0.706; 95% CI, 0.687-0.724; p < 0.001) and the Mirai model (AUC, 0.687; 95% CI, 0.668-0.705; p < 0.001). In a matched case-control cohort (n=432), the DRP model achieved a 5-year AUC of 0.676 (95% CI, 0.626-0.727), compared with 0.567 (95% CI, 0.514-0.621; p < 0.001) for the Tyrer-Cuzick model. The model reclassified 37.6% (705/1,877) of women with extremely dense breasts as average risk, with a 5-year cancer incidence of 0.7% (5/705), and identified 15.5% (404/2,605) of women with fatty breasts as high risk, with a 5-year cancer incidence of 2.5% (10/404). Conclusion: A deep learning model using longitudinal DBT examinations improved long-term breast cancer risk prediction compared with FFDM-based and clinical risk models. Clinical Impacts: Longitudinal DBT-based risk prediction may enable dynamic risk assessment using screening images, supporting personalized screening strategies and more targeted use of supplemental imaging.

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RUNX1-deficiency drives immune-active ER+ mammary tumorigenesis through activation of interferon signaling

Han, S.; Xiang, D.; Chen, X.; Zhao, D.; Qin, G.; Bronson, R.; Li, Z.

2026-04-09 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.04.06.716728 medRxiv
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AbstractRecurrent loss-of-function mutations in RUNX1 occur in estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancers, yet how RUNX1-loss contributes to breast tumorigenesis remains unclear. Here we used genetically engineered mouse models with luminal mammary epithelial cell (MEC)-restricted gene disruption to investigate its role in breast cancer initiation. Loss of RUNX1 alone, or together with RB1, was insufficient to drive tumor formation. In contrast, combined loss of RUNX1 and p53 induced mammary tumors with full penetrance. These tumors contained ER+ cancer cells and exhibited extensive T cell and macrophage infiltration, indicative of an immune hot microenvironment. Mechanistically, RUNX1-deficiency activated interferon signaling in luminal MECs, associated with derepression of RUNX1 target STAT1 and enhanced inflammatory responses. Consistent with these findings, human ER+ breast cancers with low RUNX1 expression displayed elevated immune signatures and poorer patient survival. Together, our results identify RUNX1-loss as a driver of an immune-active subtype of ER+ breast cancer.